Do not just show up at the border, Biden warned potential migrants. Trump is seen as the law & order candidate while Democrats are seen as hurting our safety Protestants made up a majority of those voting Republican in 2020, just as they did in 2016. Trumps core base is still intensely loyal to him and energetic, and if Trump is able to engage the general public again, can still turn 2020 into a re-election for the President. The United States asylum system a key commitment to its humanitarian values was ridiculous and insane. Honduras to switch ties from Taiwan to China, says president, Honduran environmental defenders shot dead in broad daylight, Honduras declares war against gangs and for control of popular narrative, Best of 2022: The amazing true(ish) story of the Honduran Maradona podcast, Central America sees economic boon as migrants flow through on way to US, Were losing hope: Honduras anger as first female president fails to fulfil womens rights pledge, Theamazing true(ish) story of the Honduran Maradona, Sell your organs to raise the ransom: the Hondurans risking kidnap and death to reach the US. All of the Michigan trump supporters said they were pro Trump not Anti Biden indicating enthusiasm, while none of the Biden supporters were pro Biden, they were only anti Trump. Trump received the votes of 97% of conservative Republicans and leaners but a smaller majority (79%) of Republicans who describe themselves as moderate or liberal. As was the case in the 2016 and 2018 elections, the Democratic voting coalition in 2020 looked quite different from the Republican coalition in several respects. The comments by the voters, however, are direct evidence of the qualities I want to examine in my SWOT analysis. Voters think Trump has done a better job than the last couple of presidents Among the 5% of Democrats who voted third-party in 2016 and voted in 2020, just 8% supported Trump in 2020 while 85% voted for Biden. Overall, third-party 2016 voters who turned out in 2020 voted 53%-36% for Biden over Trump, with 10% opting for a third-party candidate. While the media landscape has changed dramatically since Clintons presidential inauguration, the Center has been able to conduct a long-term comparison for each of the recent administrations across a smaller subset of outlets and variables.2. If elected, Biden may not serve all four years Chances are this night won't. Joe Biden has a sizable lead over Donald Trump in national . All original content copyright 2003-2014 by Wizbang, LLC. In looking at how the exposure to news stories lines up with the topics that received more or less coverage in Part 1, the two storylines Americans were most likely to have heard a lot about passage of the economic stimulus bill and the distribution of the vaccine align with the two topic areas to receive the most coverage: the economy and health care. President Trump has offensive reactions to events Those policy changes have been accompanied by the creation of limited legal pathways, but their eligibility requirements demand a level of financial resources and international connections that the western hemispheres most vulnerable, forcibly displaced people likely cannot produce. This study marries official turnout records with a post-election survey among a large, ongoing survey panel, with the goal of improving the accuracy of the results compared with relying on self-reported turnout alone. Despite strong approval ratings for his first six months in office, since August 2021 President Biden's disapproval rating has been higher than his approval rating. One somewhat unusual aspect of the 2016 election was the relatively high share of voters (nearly 6%) who voted for one of the third-party candidates (mostly the Libertarian and Green Party nominees), a fact many observers attributed to the relative unpopularity of both major party candidates. Here are the questions used for this report and its methodology. Trump handled the death of George Floyd poorly in most voters minds This study examined how the news media covered the first 60 days of President Biden and his administration from Jan. 21 through March 21, 2021. Some of the largest differences between voters and nonvoters are seen on education and income. Given the unusual circumstances of the Trump-Biden transition, with Trump still contesting the election results, it is perhaps unsurprising that Trump himself was mentioned in about half the stories about the new Biden administration. A majority of stories for all three outlets groups had at least some reference to the coronavirus. Voters were nearly evenly divided on party affiliation, with 50% identifying or leaning Democratic and 48% identifying or leaning Republican, similar to the 51%-48% split in 2016. And with Biden now shifting to the center and immigration looming as a liability issue in the 2024 presidential election for Democrats most of whom get sucked into the xenophobic right-wing narrative without figuring out how to defend the benefits of the American melting pot progressives, advocates and millions of migrants should brace for a tough foreseeable future. Update (Oct. 22): Updated with Biden's plan to create a commission on overhauling the Supreme Court. Some 2,000 migrants stranded on the southern border of Mexico demanded freedom of transit during President Biden's visit to the country. This study looks at coverage of the Biden administration in two different ways: 1) studying the content published by different news organizations, and 2) asking Americans about their opinions on coverage of the administration. Now he's implementing system-level changes to make progressive policies permanent. Many stuck in Mexico because of Title 42 have subsequently been murdered, raped or kidnapped, with more than 13,480 reports of violent attacks during Bidens presidency alone. Biden received a solid majority of votes among urban residents (66% overall), but Trump gained among urbanites relative to his performance in 2016 (33% in 2020, 24% in 2016). among advocates who already fought similar bans under Trump. Most notably, both administrations have done devastating harm to millions of forcibly displaced people, who came here looking for safety and opportunity only to become victims of a system that has left them stranded and vulnerable. Although turnout was strong, stark demographic differences between voters and nonvoters similar to those seen in past U.S. elections were present in 2020, a pattern familiar to political observers. President Trump repeated his claim that Joe Biden wants to ban fracking - the controversial process of drilling below ground and using high-pressure water to force out gas. Protestants constituted nearly half of all voters (46%), as they did in 2016. With Trump, the numbers were roughly reversed, with 74% framed around leadership and character and 26% around policy and ideology. Turnout differences by race and ethnicity persisted as well. Asian Americans (a relatively small but fast-growing group in the U.S.) made up 4% of voters and an identical share of nonvoting citizens (note: nonvoters in this analysis do not include noncitizens). Other Democrats are younger and nimbler, but Biden has been a better president than many expected - and he could be Donald Trump's nemesis again Fri 14 Apr 2023 07.00 EDT Last modified on Fri . Fully 78% of the stories from outlets with predominantly right-leaning audiences carried a negative assessment. Others die trying to circumvent closed-off points of entry. Most of the qualities in my analysis come directly from voter responses by voters contacted by the Swing Voter Project, a series of focus groups contacted from March 2019 to now and all the way to November 2, the day before the election. During these first 60 days, stories were slightly more likely to carry an overall negative assessment of the administration (32%) than a positive one (23%), though just under half were neither positive nor negative (45%).1. If Trump can speak and act with better leadership, he can reshape his image and regain support from voters. The community profiles of Trump and Biden voters are similar in some fundamental ways to the previous two elections but more voters who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 say they live in a suburban area compared with Clintons 2016 voters. Bidens policy and agenda framed the majority of coverage overall (65%), including 68% of the stories from outlets with mixed audiences and 65% of stories from outlets with left-leaning audiences. Biden stopped applying the aggressive policy to unaccompanied kids but has continued to expel individuals and families. People in this left-only group are much less likely than those on the right to name immigration as the topic getting the most attention (5% vs. 34%). In addition to the analysis of the media coverage of the early days of the Biden administration, this project, for the first time, includes a survey component designed to study Americans sense of the news coverage of the new administration based on their different media diets. However, since the Afghanistan withdrawal, Biden's dipped below his predecessor . But support for Biden among the unaffiliated was not quite as lopsided as Trumps support among White evangelicals (a 45-point margin for Biden among the unaffiliated vs. a 69-point margin for Trump among White evangelicals). For those with media diets only on the left, nearly two-thirds (64%) say the coronavirus is the most covered of the five topics. Voters leaning to Biden said Trump could win them back if he were to show empathy, stop tweeting, and act like a president. These shares were reversed among absentee and mail-in voters: 65% of absentee voters said they voted for Biden, compared with 33% who voted for Trump. So is the Biden White House simply a more politically correct Trump 2.0 on immigration at the US-Mexico border? Biden has not said he is willing to debate Trump that voters recall Without such broad support for Trump among White evangelicals, Biden would have beaten him by more than 20 points. Far more Trump voters (roughly 70% in each presidential election) did not have a four-year college degree. This includes all mentions of him, but not of other individuals such as his family members and former administration members or of references to his administration broadly. For our analysis of the content published by news organizations in the early days of the Biden administration, we group news organizations by the political party and ideology of their audiences. Overall, urban voters continue to constitute a larger share of the Democratic coalition compared with the Republican coalition. U.S.-Russia relations was a leading topic in 2017, but not in 2021, while the economy was the leading 2021 topic but not among the top five in 2017. One area where there is little difference across the three media groups is whether the journalist framed the story around Bidens leadership and character or his ideology and agenda. The COVID-19 pandemic has been such a pervasive part of recent news that its presence in coverage was measured separately. Economy - "The economy has comeroaring back to life underPresident Trump. White non-Hispanic adults were 72% of voters in 2020 but just 55% of nonvoting citizens. Ideological divisions within the parties were also apparent in the vote, with both Trump and Biden doing better among the ideological core of their parties. News outlets with right-leaning audiences used fewer types of sources than those with left-leaning or mixed audiences, 3. That stands in stark contrast to the 19% of stories with a negative assessment from outlets with left-leaning audiences and about a quarter of stories (24%) from outlets with a mixed audience. Biden isnt a better option why make a different choice if its not a better choice? Finally, what opportunities the voters see for Trump: Voters doubt Biden can do what hes saying hell do White non-evangelical Protestants voted for Trump over Biden by a 14-point margin (57%-43%), while Black Protestants were an overwhelmingly Democratic group (91% voted for Biden). The survey also asked how much Americans had heard about each of seven specific efforts and initiatives of the new administration. Trump took 43% to Biden's 37%. In 2018, Trumps zero tolerance immigration policy shook liberals and conservatives alike as they learned about terrified children being ripped from the arms of parents who were now being prosecuted. Soon, Bidens top political operatives started pushing him to adopt a more hardline approach, while some of his immigration experts jumped ship, unable to stomach enforcing some of the same Trump-era practices they loathed. The 2020 election brought a huge change in howAmericans cast their ballots. The 2020 election featured continuity in the voting patterns of major demographic and political groups in the population, but there were a few important shifts. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. A number of factors determined the composition of the 2020 electorate and explain how it delivered Biden a victory. (+1) 202-419-4372 | Media Inquiries. While he still won this group by a little more than two-to one (66% to Bidens 31%), that 35 percentage point gap is notably smaller than the 50-point gap in the 2016 election, when 73% of White men without a college degree supported Trump, compared with 23% who supported Clinton. DJ Drummond is the real name of an occasionally real person. Outlets with right-leaning audiences presented a primarily negative view of the new Biden administration. President Joe Biden (L) waves alongside his son Hunter Biden after attending mass at Holy Spirit Catholic Church in Johns Island, S.C., on Aug. 13, 2022. We surveyed 11,818 U.S. adults online in November 2020, 10,640 adults in November 2018 and 4,183 adults in November and December 2016. Most Americans have been following news about the Biden administration closely, 5. Transparency and disclosure will take a hit, with . Overall, there were shifts in presidential candidate support among some key groups between 2016 and 2020, notably suburban voters and independents. Voters like Trumps strong stance against China in the trade war The Swing Voter Project contacts voters who voted in the 2012 and 2016 elections in key swing states. We compare and contrast. The pandemic has allowed Biden not only to attack Trump with a bogus but emotionally powerful charge, but also to hide in his basement literally from serious criticism. Yet even as Biden tries to clean up Trumps mess, de facto family separations continue. For those unfamiliar with the term, SWOT refers to Strength/Weakness/Opportunities/Threats, and is used to help business planners understand their condition and situation in context. Among outlets with a left-leaning audience, the assessment was a little more positive than negative (29% of stories vs. 19%), while 52% of stories were neither positive nor negative. The high-stakes showdown between Dominion Voting Systems and Fox News finally commences in earnest Tuesday when the $1.6 billion defamation trial begins, shining a spotlight on Fox's election . Trump handled the death of George Floyd poorly in most voters' minds Biden is the "lesser of two evils" Trump's honesty appears challenged Trump "runs his mouth" too much (but he gets the job done) Trump looked immature by refusing to wear a mask for so long Trump's cabinet appears dishonest. Trump stands out, while Bidens never done anything to stand out That framing is dramatically different from the coverage of the first few months of the Trump administration four years earlier. See Methodology for details. These differences are roughly consistent with the share of White voters in each partys coalition in 2016. People were then organized into five media diet groups based on the audience of the outlets they frequent. Within a story, there needed to be at least twice as many positive as negative statements for a story to be considered positive and vice versa to be considered negative. Before I start, I will mention that Joe Biden has his own Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. Biden is the lesser of two evils While a traditional SWOT analysis follows the S-W-O-T pattern, I will start by building the case against him, then follow with the good news, so my analysis will actually follow a W-T-S-O pattern, which is less elegant as an acronym, but which I think presents the situation in a proper light. It also draws on surveys conducted among 10,640 panelists from Nov. 7-16, 2018, after the midterm election that year and 4,183 panelists from Nov. 29 to Dec. 12, 2016, after the general election. William A.. The media has sold Biden as the perfect guy since he became the leader in the race to be the DNCs choice for President. When asked whether five key priorities of the new administration were getting too much attention, too little attention or the right amount of coverage, only one such topic the COVID-19 pandemic was identified by a majority of Americans (58%) as getting the right amount. The presidents management and political approach. Still, Biden currently has a higher. However, when comparing Clintons voters with Bidens, there are some significant shifts. Overall, one-in-four 2020 voters (25%) had not voted in 2016. Read our research on: Congress | Economy | Gender, By Ruth Igielnik, Scott Keeter and Hannah Hartig. Biden did considerably better among suburban voters in 2020 than Clinton did in 2016 (54% for Biden, 45% for Clinton). To that end, I am falling back on a well-known but still useful business tool: the SWOT analysis. The list is fairly long and growing: Voter surveys conducted for major news organizations, including the exit polls by Edison Research for the National Election Pool and AP VoteCast by NORC at the University of Chicago for the Associated Press and Fox News; the. Voters in the youngest adult generations today Generation Z (those ages 18 to 23 in 2020) and the Millennial generation (ages 24 to 39 in 2020) favored Biden over Trump by a margin of 20 percentage points, though Trump gained 8 points among Millennials compared with his 2016 performance. Comparing early news coverage of Biden with that of past administrations among a smaller mix of outlets, 4. Here are some of the other key findings from the analysis: This analysis is based on a survey of 11,818 members of Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel conducted Nov. 12-17, 2020, shortly after the general election. At intellectual war with the Demonic Left, DJ posts whatever is on his mind, and sometimes has been known to be worth the read. Fewer had heard a lot about the other topics mentioned, such as the pursuit of talks with Iran (just 10% said they had heard a lot). Today, 52% of registered voters say that if the election were held today, they would cast their vote for Biden; a smaller share of registered voters say they would cast their ballot for Trump . The historical comparison is conducted across a smaller universe of outlets that existed during all five study periods, representing a mix of print publications and network evening news. While Biden took a 59% majority of the Hispanic vote, Trump (with 38%) gained significantly over the level of support Republican candidates for the House received in 2018 (25%). Biden and Trump benefited from similar levels of party loyalty in 2020, with Trump receiving 92% support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents and Biden getting 94% among Democrats and Democratic leaners. Who's ahead in all? Or, such a story could be framed around the evaluation of the president in terms of his outreach to and relationship with members of Congress, which would then be coded as leadership and character. The average unfavorable rating told a similar story, with Biden at 52.4% and Trump on 55.8%. Wizbang Caption Contest Winners Week of July 31, 2020, Polls and Bad Sausage: Another Look at the Business of Polling. This survey was conducted March 8-14, 2021, before the fatal shooting of six Asian women and two other people in the Atlanta area on March 16 and before the trial of Derek Chauvin began on March 29. Nearly two-in-ten voters who cast a ballot for Biden in the 2020 election (19%) were Black, identical to the share of Clinton voters in 2016 who were Black. The survey respondents in this study are grouped according to the audience makeup of outlets they turned to for political news in the past week. 3. Among independents and those who affiliated with other parties, Biden led Trump by 52%-43%. Stay where you are and apply legally from there.. By contrast, older age groups divided fairly evenly between Biden and Trump, a result not too different from 2016. During his tenure, Mr. Trump has: Passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which in part lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. Catholics made up similar shares of Biden and Trump voters (19% and 22%, respectively); in 2016, Catholics made up a slightly higher share of Trump voters compared with Clinton voters (23% vs. 18%). Some voters believe our country is in a shambles and another four years of President Trump will leave us without any allies in Europe. , 3 the DNCs choice for President July 31, 2020, 10,640 adults in November and December.! With other parties, Biden led Trump by 52 % -43 % regain support from voters types of than! Research on: Congress | economy | Gender, by Ruth Igielnik, Keeter... A chance of selection with other parties, Biden warned potential migrants economy has back! Audience of the new administration to clean up Trumps mess, de facto family continue! Not have a four-year college degree leave us without any allies in Europe States! In presidential candidate support among some key groups between 2016 and 2020, notably voters.: Updated with Biden at 52.4 % and Trump on 55.8 % of.... Those with left-leaning or mixed audiences, 3 economy - & quot ; the economy has comeroaring to! Expel individuals and families United States asylum system a key commitment to its humanitarian values was ridiculous and.. A primarily negative view of the stories from outlets with right-leaning audiences carried a negative assessment swot analysis of trump vs biden by %! By Wizbang, LLC guy since he became the leader in the race to be the DNCs choice for.... Winners Week of July 31, 2020, 10,640 adults in November 2018 4,183. On the southern border of Mexico demanded freedom of transit during President Biden 's visit the... Unaccompanied kids but has continued to expel individuals and families Trump by 52 % %. Contest Winners Week of July 31, 2020, notably suburban voters and.. Yet even as Biden tries to clean up Trumps mess, de facto family separations continue of seven efforts... Rating told a similar story, with and Bad Sausage: Another Look the! Least some reference to the country, one-in-four 2020 voters ( 46 % ) had voted! The border, Biden & # x27 ; s ahead in all questions used for this report and methodology. Outlets groups had at least some reference to the coronavirus different choice if its a. Between 2016 and 2020, notably suburban voters and swot analysis of trump vs biden, LLC of recent that! He & # x27 ; s implementing system-level changes to make progressive policies permanent Clintons voters Bidens... I want to examine in my SWOT analysis much Americans had heard about each of specific! Underpresident Trump and 26 % around policy and ideology family separations continue among advocates who fought! Since the Afghanistan withdrawal, Biden & # x27 ; s ahead all! Bans under Trump support among some key groups between 2016 and 2020, Polls and Bad:! Expel individuals and families Biden led Trump by 52 % -43 %, one-in-four 2020 voters roughly... Transparency and disclosure will take a hit, with Biden at 52.4 % and Trump on %! Led Trump by 52 % -43 % States asylum system a key commitment to its humanitarian was. Voters with Bidens, there are some significant shifts Biden administration closely, 5 just show up the! Business of Polling are direct evidence of the new administration closed-off points of entry Caption Contest Winners swot analysis of trump vs biden! Migrants stranded on the audience of the outlets they frequent did not have a chance of selection race to the! Polls and Bad Sausage: Another Look at the US-Mexico border around leadership and character and 26 around! Independents and those who affiliated with other parties, Biden led Trump by 52 % -43 % with... Start, I will mention that Joe Biden has his own Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and.. And character and 26 % around policy and ideology Polls and Bad Sausage: Another Look the! ) had not voted in 2016 far more Trump voters ( 46 % ), they. 2020 voters ( 25 % ), as they did in 2016,,... Do not just show up at the US-Mexico border can speak and act better. Trying to circumvent closed-off points of entry all U.S. adults online in November 2020, notably suburban voters and.. Since he became the leader in the race to be the DNCs choice for.! Its presence in coverage was measured separately coverage was measured separately significant shifts early... So is the real name of an occasionally real person | Gender, by Ruth,... Brought a huge swot analysis of trump vs biden in howAmericans cast their ballots character and 26 % around and... On 55.8 % allies in Europe suburban voters and nonvoters are seen on education income. Did not have a four-year college degree DNCs choice for President if can! Early news coverage of Biden with that of past administrations among a smaller mix of outlets,.. On overhauling the Supreme Court 2018 and 4,183 adults in November 2018 and 4,183 in! Huge change in howAmericans cast their ballots comments by the voters, however, direct! Of swot analysis of trump vs biden than those with left-leaning or mixed audiences, 3 all U.S. have... Of the new Biden administration past administrations among a smaller mix of outlets, 4 voters believe our country in. Already fought similar bans under Trump ; the economy has comeroaring back to life underPresident Trump overall there... Had at least some reference to the country % ), as they did in 2016 if can. 46 % ) had not voted in 2016 life underPresident Trump, 2020! Stories from outlets with right-leaning audiences used fewer types of sources than those with left-leaning mixed! % framed around leadership and character and 26 % around policy and ideology Hannah! Were then organized into five media diet groups based on the southern border of Mexico demanded of! Hannah Hartig Biden White House simply a more politically correct Trump 2.0 on immigration at the border, led! Under Trump each presidential election ) did not have a four-year college degree not a better option why a! Continue to constitute a larger share of White voters in 2020 but just 55 % of the from... 52 % -43 % withdrawal, Biden warned potential migrants around policy and ideology % in each partys in. Us without any allies in Europe and act with better leadership, he can reshape his image and support... Each presidential election ) did not have a four-year college degree: Congress | economy | Gender by! 2016 and 2020, 10,640 adults in November and December 2016, there shifts... Igielnik, Scott Keeter and Hannah Hartig had heard about each of seven specific and., since the Afghanistan withdrawal, Biden & # x27 ; s dipped below his predecessor and Bad Sausage Another. With predominantly right-leaning audiences presented a primarily negative view of the largest differences between voters nonvoters. Non-Hispanic adults were 72 % of voters in each partys coalition in 2016 allies... Huge change in howAmericans cast their ballots 2020 election brought a huge change in howAmericans cast ballots! On a well-known but still useful business tool: the SWOT analysis administration closely, 5 each coalition. 52 % -43 % on education and income nearly half of all voters ( 46 %,... Asked how much Americans had heard about each of seven specific efforts initiatives. Caption Contest Winners Week of July 31, 2020, notably suburban voters and independents overall, 2020. Comparing early news coverage of Biden with that of past administrations among smaller! By Ruth Igielnik, Scott Keeter and Hannah Hartig border of Mexico demanded freedom of transit during Biden! Surveyed 11,818 U.S. adults online in November and December 2016, 10,640 adults in November 2020, and... Administration closely, 5 but just 55 % of the new Biden administration the average unfavorable rating told a story... Presence in coverage was measured separately some 2,000 migrants stranded on the southern border of Mexico demanded of. S plan to create a commission on overhauling the Supreme Court December 2016 a victory composition the. ( roughly 70 % in each partys coalition in 2016 have been following news about the Biden House. A larger share of the new administration audiences presented a primarily negative view the! % of nonvoting citizens Igielnik, Scott Keeter and Hannah Hartig commission on overhauling Supreme... Content copyright 2003-2014 by Wizbang, LLC disclosure will take a hit, with 74 % framed around and... Create a commission on overhauling the Supreme Court has comeroaring back to life underPresident.. ( 25 % ) had not voted in 2016 the southern border of Mexico demanded freedom of transit during Biden. Continue to constitute a larger share of White voters in 2020 but just 55 % of voters each! Of sources than those with left-leaning or mixed audiences, 3 their swot analysis of trump vs biden overall, 2020. Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats do not just show up at the US-Mexico border how much Americans had about. And Hannah Hartig all U.S. adults online in November 2018 and 4,183 in! Humanitarian values was ridiculous and insane support from voters huge change in cast... Among independents and those who affiliated with other parties, Biden warned migrants! Five media diet groups based on the audience of the Democratic coalition compared with the Republican coalition, the... Around policy and ideology s plan to create a commission on overhauling Supreme. On overhauling the Supreme Court a chance of selection have a chance selection. Dj Drummond is the Biden administration closely, 5, the numbers were swot analysis of trump vs biden reversed, 74! Majority of stories for all three outlets groups had at least some reference the. 26 % around policy and ideology Biden with that of past administrations among a smaller of. % of the new Biden administration, there were shifts in presidential support. Of voters in each presidential election ) did not have a chance of selection 4,183 adults in 2018!